Call me crazy (about Silver)...
BY: thorshammer - May 9th, 2008 - 12:05 AM
+124-21 ... because I see it going to $30. Two reasons:
(1) it's significance - it's a currency: the "gold standard" replaced the "silver standard" but it's still serves a similar function - beyond being valued for itself (like gold), it has vast practical and industrial uses (a new type of ink being a recent one) - it's production is DECLINING, reflecting diminishing reserves in the ground; 20% of annual production is from recycling (see Fig.1) - USGS data in years prior support that trend - silver is a "surface" phenomenon - the deeper you go the less there is, so that most of the primary world reserves have already been discovered; it has been forecast to be the first strategic metal for the world to "run out of" ("The International Silver Trade" - Thomas Mohide);
(2) it's recent history Look at this graph (see Fig.2) and keep in mind the following: - if we truly are in a commodities supercycle (10 years?) the patterns in this graph can be easily extended - notice the 2-year cycles in it: (a) 2002 it was at it's lowest price in terms of relative dollar buying power (b) 2004, 2006, 2008 - see the peaks in each case? Peaks at $7, $14 and $21. And the curves leading up to each pretty much the same; - the 2010 peak should reach $30 - and that's no stretch, as it reached $21 back in 1980 (see Fig.3) which is much the same price after adjusting dollar values;
So I see it as a really good idea to buy silver right now. Call me crazy.
- thorshammer's blog
- Login or register to post comments
- 8 points
Your Membership Includes...
Expand Your Network
Add brokers, experienced investors, financial planners and novice investors to your personal network.
Shoutbox
Pinnacle Digest is committed to providing every member of our site with a voice in our global investor community.
Investment Opportunities
As a member of Pinnacle Digest, you can expect 4-6 investment opportunities annually.
Exclusive Market Reports
Our reports evaluate the market while providing an edge on industry trends.Register
What are You Waiting for?
InvestorSentiment
Most Rated Stocks in the Community
- Archer Entertainment Media Communications Inc. 80.0%
- Montello Resources60.0%
- Mosquito Cons. Gold Mines50.0%50.0%
- Bionic Products Inc.100.0%
- Buzz Technologies Inc. 100.0%
- Voyant International Corp. 33.3%66.7%
Visit your favorite company hub to submit your rating.
Re: Call me crazy (about Silver)...
Nope, can't call you crazy. Good write up
Re: Call me crazy (about Silver)...//thor
Grant1, glad you found the 5-yr chart useful - 24hGOLD has lots of excellent charts available, and you can go back as far as 1985 on the example I gave. (I just used the handy slider to narrow the year-range for the purpose of making my point.)
Regarding silver's use, here's the breakdown: In 2006, 430.3 million ounces of silver were used for industrial applications, while over 145.8 million ounces of silver were committed to the photographic sector, 165.8 million ounces were consumed in the jewelry market, and 59.1 million ounces were consumed in the silverware market. (Silver Institute.) Industrial is obviously the heavyweight these days and no wonder: it's electrical and thermal conductivity, fatigue and temp. change resistance, reflectivity and a host of chemical characteristics make for a vast range of uses. Billions of miniature batteries every year, jet engine bearing coatings, electrical contacts and membranes in electronics, catalysts in manufactuing nearly all plastics.
Which is the #1 use? An estimated 145 M oz. were used in 2006 for photography so that probably still makes it king. But IMHO the up-and-comer is electronics. It's used 2 ways on printed circuit boards: as solder for mounted components and as connecting paths for circuits. Also on the cutting edge of next generation hard drives, specifically on the read-write heads. And anything that finds its way into mobile technology these days (like tantalum and niobium) will see increasing demand and that includes silver.
Re: Call me crazy (about Silver)...//grant
Not really sure, probably electronics. It is used in so many aspects, that is what is so appealing.
Re: Call me crazy (about Silver)...//grant
exactly!!
what would you say is silver's Number #1 use and will be going forward?
Re: Call me crazy (about Silver)...//grant
You are correct Grant, I love silver, copper, and moly. The upside for these 3 commodities is very good in my eyes. I specifically like they are consumed, used every day, and considerably more every day.
Thanks
Re: Call me crazy (about Silver)...
love the post thorshammer,
silver does indeed have some great functions.. unlike gold which comes out of the ground to go back in the ground it is extremly useful. Especially in computers and tech..
edminnema one of the biggest members on this site is nuts about silver as well, he will have you an essay on silver and why its going to $40 in no time!
thanks for the 5 year chart, no idea could have bought for $3.50 in 2002, unbelievable..
cheers, grant