In this report you will read about, and see, why we believe we may have found Canada’s next zinc mine…
Not many understand why base metal producers are so profitable. First of all, there are few small-scale base metal producers; more often, they operate large tonnage projects that are profitable at conservative metal prices. In short, they typically scale very well in tight supply environments. Hence, when metals such as zinc enter supply deficits, and the price spikes (as it did in 2016), producers often make massive profits.
With zinc in a supply deficit expected to last through 2020, elevated prices are expected to continue. Because of this, we searched Canada for its most profitable past producing zinc mines to see if there were any explorers near them…
In our search, which began last year, we found the Pine Point Zinc-Lead Project, located outside Hay River, NWT; not a greenfield asset, but a past brownfield producer, the mine was previously operated by Cominco, now part of the Teck organization. With millions of tons of zinc ore already proven in the ground, Pine Point may be best positioned, of all past producing zinc mines in Canada, to restart production the quickest. There are many reasons we believe this…
Pine Point is considered to be the most profitable past producing zinc mine in Canadian history. The reason for this, is because its previous operator, Cominco, only mined the 52 highest grade deposits at the project – leaving nearly that many behind.
Cominco began exploring Pine Point in 1929, with test-pitting, drilling and shaft sinking. Major exploration work began in 1948. And, by 1964, about 90 deposits had been discovered by Cominco. Large-scale mine production began that year. An assemblage of 50 separate open pits and two underground deposits, lying along a 35-kilometer trend, made up the “Pine Point mine”.
Approximately 64 million tonnes of ore at a grade of 7.0% zinc and 3.1% lead was mined between 1964 and 1987.
Upon learning Cominco only mined the highest grade ore (roughly 50 of the near 100 deposits defined), our hunch was that there was a lot left behind…
As our research process began, we learned that Darnley Bay Resources (DBL: TSXV) had acquired the Pine Point Zinc-Lead Project in 2016 as zinc prices nearly doubled. And today we’re going to tell you about this uniquely positioned opportunity.
Pine Point Zinc-Lead Mine Management Consists of Mine Builders
Paramount to our decision to feature and invest in Darnley Bay, the company has a management team worthy of the asset it controls. Its Chief Operating Officer, John Key, worked at Teck (previous operator of the Pine Point mine) for 28 years. Not only did he work at Teck, but on two of the company’s most prolific zinc mines, both operating in the far North of North America (in much harsher climates than Pine Point).
Mr. Key is a mining engineer who managed Cominco’s mine in Missouri as well as their Polaris zinc mine in Nunavut, Canada. Then he was promoted to General Manager of the Red Dog mine in Alaska, the largest zinc mine in the world. In fact, Mr. Key spearheaded the doubling of production during his tenure there, to approximately 1.2 million tonnes of zinc per annum – following an approximate $300 million project expansion.
Given Key’s history of zinc mining in the north, his decision to focus on bringing Darnley Bay’s Pine Point Zinc-Lead Project back into production speaks volumes.
While we have little doubt John Key is an authority in the space, we always search out independent opinions from friendly geologists we’ve stayed in touch with over the years. High-level reviews of data from the Pine Point Project, specifically with zinc prices around $1.20 per pound, were strong…
Furthermore, Darnley Bay reported in its April PEA (preliminary economic assessment) prepared by an independent third party, that “Net of by-products, the average cash cost to produce zinc is US$0.60 per pound,” and “The PEA shows a robust economic return with a relatively low capital cost compared to similar projects and an after-tax payback of only 1.8 years.” Click here to read the full news release on the company’s robust PEA.
Still, we had to see it for ourselves – we had to meet the team attempting to bring the historic past producing Pine Point Project back into production. So we headed up to the project and kicked the tires like never before… and we recorded it all, for you to see.
Watch our site visit to Darnley Bay’s Pine Point Project
Darnley Bay – Management With Past Production Success Targets Zinc Mine
Darnley Bay’s Chairman is Mr. Kerry Knoll. Having worked in the mining industry for 35 years, he co-founded some of the most well-known junior mining companies in recent Canadian history. On four separate occasions, and with different companies, Knoll accomplished what most juniors only dream of…
In May of last year, Trish Saywell of the Northern Miner reported Kerry Knoll has co-founded four companies and built four mines with his business partner Ian McDonald.
Their first company, Glencairn Gold, went on to become Central Sun Mining before getting snapped up by B2Gold. Their second company, Wheaton River Minerals, eventually merged with Goldcorp, and their third, Blue Pearl Mining, Became Thompson Creek Metals and was taken over by Centerra Gold.
Knoll is nothing short of an industry legend, known as a ‘mine builder’, and is targeting zinc, specifically the Pine Point Project, as his next production goal.
Once again, Knoll’s timing looks solid, as an ongoing supply deficit in zinc pushed many stocks to new all-time highs in 2016. While Darnley Bay’s share price exploded in late-2016, it has since come off, hence the timing of this introduction. Its shares hit a high of $0.57 earlier in 2017, but closed trading on Friday at $0.28.
Knoll teamed up with Jamie Levy, the company’s President & CEO, in 2013 to run Darnley Bay.
Mr. Levy has been financing and managing Canadian mining companies for 25 years. He was VP Trading at Pinetree Capital Management for over five years and knows the capital markets inside and out. Knoll and Levy have raised capital for Darnley Bay from industry power players including Swedish-Canadian billionaire and commodity tycoon Lukas Lundin; as well as the founder and former Chairman and CEO of GoldCorp Inc. Rob McEwen.
Attracting investors with this level of expertise and success is no small feat. It speaks directly to the caliber of Darnley Bay’s leadership and the Pine Point asset.
In a December 2016 equity offering, ($0.20 hard and $0.25 flow-through), Darnley Bay reported:
“The Company is extremely pleased to announce that Zebra Holdings and Investments S.à.r.l (“Zebra”), a company controlled by a trust settled by the late Adolf H. Lundin, subscribed for $2.5 million comprised of 12.5 million Units of the Offering.”
Lukas Lundin is Adolf’s son. He is the chairman of Lundin Mining, Denison Mines, Lucara Diamond, NGEx Resources Inc and Lundin Gold.
Also,
“The Company further announces McEwen Mining and Evanachan Limited, a corporation controlled by Mr. Rob McEwen, have subscribed for in the aggregate $1 million comprised of 5 million Units of the Offering.”
Why was Darnley Bay able to command interest from these well-known players? In a nutshell: Likely because its asset is advancing; it is in a sector experiencing upward price movement due to a supply deficit, and the story is simple to understand with the potential for a robust economic return with a relatively low capital cost compared to similar projects.
On Zinc, Size and Grade Matter
On March 4th of this year, Darnley Bay released an NI 43-101 resource estimate report, explaining that,
“Based on drilling and other work from previous operators, the resources cover 15 of the 60 known historical deposits on the 21,000-hectare property. There has been more than 1.3 million metres of drilling on the Pine Point property by previous operators, including Cominco, Westmin and Tamerlane.”
1.3 million metres of drilling is the most explored project we’ve ever come across. Ever.
Check out the zinc grades on the far right of the below table released in the March 4th press release:
“The numerical and geostatistical analysis of drill sampling for the deposits R-190, X25, G-O3, P-499, O556, Z155 and associated mineral resource estimations, were carried out by PAH, 2008, all qualified persons according to National Instrument 43-101. Their work was reviewed and found to be adequate and is accepted by the authors; a summary is presented the table above. These deposits are prismatic in type and generally follow the modeling procedures for prismatics as indicated below. PAH found no capping was required. Models were completed using a geological boundary corresponding to approximately 1% Pb+Zn. Inverse distance with power 2 was used for estimation.” Click here for the full press release.
“Mineral resources which are not mineral reserves do not have demonstrated economic viability. The estimate of mineral resources may be materially affected by environmental, permitting, legal, title, taxation, sociopolitical, marketing, or other relevant issues. The mineral resource estimate is classified in accordance with the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum’s “CIM Definition Standards – For Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves” incorporated by reference into National Instrument 43-101 “Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects”.The purpose of this Summary Technical Report was for the authors to audit the work completed by Pine Point Mines Ltd (Cominco) on the 9 Cluster Pit deposits and upgrade the historical resources to an NI 43-101 Mineral Resource through Vulcan modeling using reasonable cost estimates that were developed by MineTech for the N-204 deposits. Geological boundaries for the underground deposits were domained by developing a 1% Pb+Zn shell boundary. The CP deposits were developed by iterative grade shells. Domains utilized represent greater than 1.0% mineralization (Pb%+Zn%) with contiguity (Maptek™). Mineralized materials outside of domain boundaries were not included. Metal Prices used were $1.00 per pound for Lead and $0.95 for Zinc with the $US-$CAD at Par.” Click here for the full press release.
The Pine Point Project had past production of 64 million tonnes grading 7.0% zinc and 3.1% lead from 52 deposits when Cominco operated it from 1964-1987. Darnley Bay is working to prove up additional potential resources from the approximate 50 deposits that did not produce. Also, due to the location of the old mill, much prospective land was never fully explored.
On April 18th, Darnley Bay reported a robust Preliminary Economic Assessment at its Pine Point Zinc-Lead Project. It was this assessment which inevitably finalized our decision to feature this company as our zinc play:
“PEA Study Highlights – Base Case
Pre-Tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $340.8 million at a discount rate of 8%, and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 47.8%, with a payback period of 1.4 years;
After-Tax Net Present Value of $210.5 million and Internal Rate of Return of 34.5%, with a payback of 1.8 years. Sensitivity analyses are included in Tables 5 and 6;
Pre-production capital costs are $153.8 million, including a 15% contingency, with sustaining capex of $117.5 million over the life of the mine. It is assumed that sustaining capex will be entirely funded out of cash flow;
The Pine Point project is envisioned as a series of 10 open pit deposits mined in sequence. Total mineral resources included in the PEA mine plan are 25.8 million tonnes of measured and indicated resources grading 2.94% zinc and 1.12% lead, and an additional 3.7 million tonnes of inferred resources grading 2.90% zinc and 0.77% lead.
A 13-year mine life with total life-of-mine production of 1.35 billion pounds of zinc and 536 million pounds of lead. Total shipments of 1.23 million tonnes (dry) of zinc concentrate grading 58.9% zinc, and 394,000 tonnes (dry) of lead concentrate grading 65% lead. Net of by-products, the average cash cost to produce zinc is US$0.60 per pound;The assessment estimates net smelter return over the life of the mine at $2,020 million, with gross pre-tax income of $908 million (Table 8);
Total on-site operating costs of $37.64 per tonne processed, and total transport and refining costs of $23.07 per tonne material mined and processed; and
A LOM average manpower of 321 persons including staff and contractors at full production.”
Darnley Bay’s Chief Operating Officer John Key noted, “We had faith that the project would demonstrate healthy economic potential which this very thorough study by JDS supports. Darnley Bay looks forward to working closely with the stakeholders in the South Slave region to advance Pine Point to the benefit of the region.”
The city’s mayor, who you were introduced to in our documentary video above, is a strong supporter of Darnley Bay; and, he supports the potential second coming of what was an economic boon to the small northern city of Hay River.
Pine Point Zinc-Lead Project PEA & Current Plan
In the PEA, there were two metrics that immediately caught our eye. The first was the pre-production capital costs of $153.8 million. When considering the scale of the project, this is relatively low compared to many other projects. Secondly, an after-tax payback of 1.8 years…
There are few business ventures where you can potentially get your money back in less than two years. The company has demonstrated an after-tax internal rate of return of 34.5% (Click here to read ‘Darnley Bay Announces Robust Preliminary Economic Assessment At Pine Point‘).
Darnley Bay has two drills turning as we speak, intended to potentially uncover more high-grade zinc yet to be discovered or included in the current PEA. The company has approved a $5 million exploration program for the summer of 2017.
Darnley Bay Management and Insiders Own Major Stakes in the Company
On December 20, 2016, Darnley Bay completed $7.65 million of a first tranche of a private placement. Following the completion of the offering and the Pine Point Transaction, Mr. Levy (President and CEO) owns or controls (as of Q1 2017), directly and indirectly, an aggregate of 4,436,000 common shares, representing approximately 3.81% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the company.
Note: If Mr. Levy were to exercise all of his convertible securities, he would own, directly and indirectly, 9,181,000 common shares, representing approximately 7.30%.
Furthermore, following the completion of the offering and the Pine Point Transaction, Mr. Knoll (Chairman) owns or controls (as of Q1 2017), directly and indirectly, an aggregate of 3,448,020 common shares, representing approximately 2.96% of the issued and outstanding common shares of the company.
Note: If Mr. Knoll were to exercise all of his respective convertible securities he would own, directly and indirectly, 7,525,430 common shares, representing approximately 6.07% of the company’s outstanding common shares.
The two most important people driving Darnley Bay forward have the opportunity to own approximately 13% of the outstanding shares. Having spent time on site with these two gentlemen, it’s obvious they believe in what they are doing.
Darnley Bay and Pine Point | A Story of Timing
As you can see, insider ownership is strong, and the caliber of the top investors in Darnley Bay Resources is stout. Individuals with this kind of experience have seen many cycles in the mining space, and they know when to be positioned…
Zinc is projected to be in a supply deficit for the foreseeable future. Even with new supply coming online, it will be challenging to keep up with demand that grinds 2-4% higher year after year.
Darnley Bay Resources is well aware of the market fundamentals driving zinc prices, and thus hired a zinc concentrate expert. Mr. Jim Vice is the company’s Concentrate Marketing Consultant. He knows the zinc market from a supply and demand standpoint better than anyone we’ve met. When asked for his take, Mr. Vice gave us the below quote on Wednesday, June 21st:
“LME zinc metal inventories have been falling for the past four years, and have now reached a level equal to less than 15 days of world consumption. The last major price rise in zinc in 2006-2008 was precipitated by a tightness in zinc concentrate and falling visible zinc metal inventories on the LME, at that time falling to 10-12 days of consumption. Prices average $1.50 per pound over that period, peaking at over $2 per pound in late 2006. At the current rate of drawdown of LME inventories, the 10-12 days of world consumption will be reached by the end of the summer. Falling LME inventories are bullish for the future zinc price.”
Wrapping Up
Darnley Bay’s PEA shows the potential for a robust economic return, and they are hoping to add even more tonnage and high-grade zinc to a future resource.
After traveling to Hay River and the Pine Point Project, we know the infrastructure already in place is impressive. Pre-existing infrastructure can make all the difference for a mining project, and is a key reason behind the company’s strong PEA numbers.
Hay River has all major services including an airport, a beautiful new hospital and scheduled jet service from Edmonton and Yellowknife. The city is hosting the 2018 Arctic Winter Games and is in the process of completing a large, new ice arena (a big attraction for a Canadian town). There is a rail terminal and a port from which all barge traffic travels down the Mackenzie River. The project itself has hydro-electric power running through it, supported by a dam as well as over 100 kilometres of haul road. And the project has the support of the locals, including the mayor.
Its shares last traded for $0.28 per share, giving it a market cap of approximately $39.75 million. Recognize that we are biased as the company is an advertiser client and we own shares of Darnley Bay which were purchased for our own investment purposes. Please take responsibility for practicing your own thorough and independent due diligence. Learn about the risks associated with investing in small-cap resource companies of this nature. Pick your spots…
With a Pre-Tax Net Present Value (NPV) of $340.8 million at a discount rate of 8% and an Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of 47.8%, with a payback period of 1.4 years, we believe Darnley Bay is well-positioned to benefit from today’s zinc bull market.
We asked Darnley Bay’s Chairman Kerry Knoll what the company needed to accomplish in the next 12-24 months before construction can begin. His response was:
“There are really only three things we need to do. The first, of course, is to complete a feasibility study on the project. The second one will be the permitting of the project and the third one will be the financing of the project.”
When asked which will be the most challenging, he responded confidently,
“I don’t think any of them are that challenging, because it was a mine before, our PEA numbers are excellent and the financing for a project this robust should not be that difficult.”
From our perspective, the potential reward justifies the risk of putting our name and money behind Darnley Bay. And we won’t have to wait long for news… we are expecting drill results from the company over the coming weeks as it aims to add high-grade zinc deposits to its past producing zinc project.
This marks the initiation of our coverage on Darnley Bay Resources (DBL:TSXV).
All the best with your investments,
PINNACLEDIGEST.COM
A Trip to The Northwest Territories of Canada
Pinnacle On Site with Darnley Bay
Darnley Bay Stock Information
Stock symbol: DBL – trades on the TSX Venture
Stock price (CAD$): $0.28
10-day avg. volume (approx): 170,000
Market capitalization (approx): CAD$39.75 million
Darnley Bay PEA Highlights
Click to view full presentation
source: pg. 9 Darnley Bay Corporate Presentation
Online Resources
NI 43-101 PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT TECHNICAL REPORT ON THE PINE POINT ZINC PROJECT
Darnley Bay’s Corporate Presentation
Click to view
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