Has the NASDAQ Peaked?

A History of Boom, Bust… and Euphoria Reborn

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“We’re witnessing a paradigm shift. Valuations don’t matter anymore.”
   — Investor at the top of the dot-com bubble, 1999

“I don’t think we’ll see the NASDAQ recover to these levels again in our lifetime.”
   — Fund manager at the bottom, 2002

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NASDAQ Top Always Feels Like the Future

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A few short months ago, the NASDAQ crested above 20,000.

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To the untrained eye, it looks like vindication — for believers in AI, innovation, and the disruptive power of tech. But to those who’ve lived through the index’s brutal cycles, it feels eerily familiar. Euphoria returned, and with it, the danger that what’s next may not be an extension of the trend — but its violent reversal. We saw how quickly the NASDAQ could plummet in early April, falling briefly below 15,000 before recovering to just below 17,000 on April 15 2025.

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The NASDAQ isn’t like the S&P 500 or the Dow. It’s younger. Wilder. It doesn’t just rise and fall — it booms and collapses, trapping entire generations of investors in its grip.

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To understand where it’s going next, we must first return to where this all began.

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The First Mania: Dot-Com and the Delusion of Infinite Growth (1995–2000)

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The early internet era felt like magic. Netscape’s IPO in 1995 was the spark. Soon after, anything with a “.com” at the end of its name was trading like it would dominate the future. From 1995 to March 2000, the NASDAQ Composite soared nearly 500%, driven by companies with little revenue, no profits, and zero business plans — but infinite promise.

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   “Valuation is kind of an irrelevant number right now,” said a venture capitalist to The New York Times in late 1999.

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Pets.com. eToys. Webvan. They raised millions — in some cases billions — with nothing more than a domain name and a slide deck.

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The NASDAQ peaked at 5,048.62 on March 10, 2000. It was the summit of collective delusion.

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And then came the fall.

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The Great Unraveling (2000–2002)

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Over the next 30 months, the NASDAQ lost 78% of its value. By October 2002, it bottomed at 1,108.

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Household names were wiped out. Over $5 trillion in market value evaporated. Today, that loss in value can happen in a few days.

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   “I had clients refusing to open their statements. We’d send them, they’d send them back unopened. They couldn’t bear to look...” a Morgan Stanley advisor later recalled.

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Cisco, once the most valuable company in the world, fell more than 80%. Intel, Qualcomm, and Amazon all cratered. More than half of the listed tech companies never recovered — many never made a profit.

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It took the NASDAQ 15 years — until April 2015 — to reclaim its 2000 peak.
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The Echo Boom & the 2008 Crash: Hope, Hype, and Housing

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By 2006–2007, the NASDAQ was regaining momentum. Google and Apple were ascending. Facebook was the next big thing. But this was a different kind of mania — not tech-led, but credit-fueled.

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While not at the center of the housing bubble, the NASDAQ still suffered. From a 2007 high of 2,861, it crashed to 1,268 in March 2009 — a 56% drop.

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This crash, unlike 2000, was systemic. Banks failed. Trust in the financial system itself collapsed. But this time, something new emerged from the ashes — a tech renaissance.

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The Rise of Big Tech and the New Titans (2010–2020)

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Apple became a trillion-dollar company. Google rebranded to Alphabet. Amazon became essential. Facebook connected half the planet. Microsoft rose again under Satya Nadella. These firms weren’t speculation anymore — they were global empires.

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The NASDAQ didn’t just recover — it dominated. By the end of 2019, it surpassed 9,000 for the first time.

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And then… COVID-19 hit. But, from the ashes of the pandemic, one of the most explosive rallies in market history unfolded.

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The Pandemic Bubble & the AI Euphoria (2020–2024)

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Central banks flooded the system with liquidity. Retail traders entered en masse. The NASDAQ hit 13,000, then 15,000, then 16,000.

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Zoom, Shopify, and Peloton became lockdown darlings. SPACs ran wild. Crypto flirted with legitimacy. Then came AI — the magic word.

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The rise of ChatGPT, Nvidia’s historic gains, and the promise of Artificial General Intelligence triggered a surge not seen since the dot-com bubble.

   “AI is the electricity of the 21st century,” said a Goldman Sachs strategist in early 2024.

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By early 2025, the NASDAQ broke 20,000. It felt like a new paradigm — again.

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But cracks were already visible.

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Interest rates had risen. Profitless tech began to underperform. And whispers of “bubble” grew louder and louder. And then, the chaos of Trump's tariffs were unleashed and the market cratered. The NASDAQ was in a bear market, falling more than 20% in a matter of weeks.

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Has the NASDAQ Topped? What the Past Tells Us

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If history rhymes, we may have already seen the top. Not the top forever — but a cyclical peak.

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Consider this: After 2000, it took 15 years for the NASDAQ to recover. After 2008, it took 5 years. The 2020 pandemic crash was recovered in months. Each rebound has been faster — but also more fragile.

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And every peak has followed the same pattern:

   A transformative technology.

   A wave of speculative capital.

   Valuation detachment.

   Mass participation.

   Collapse.

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It reminds me of a famous line:

   "The four most dangerous words in investing are: ‘This time it’s different.’" — Sir John Templeton

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So, has the NASDAQ peaked?

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Maybe.

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If AI delivers world-changing productivity and profits, then 20,000 may look cheap in a few years. But if expectations are too high — if earnings can’t justify the multiples and if the recession is a nasty one — then the crash could be brutal.

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The NASDAQ’s Dark Gift: It Teaches Through Pain

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What makes the NASDAQ so captivating — and so cruel — is its ability to seduce with exponential returns, then punish with drawn-out corrections.

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It’s not just a stock market. It’s a mirror for human psychology:

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   The desire for easy wealth.

   The belief in limitless innovation.

   The fear of missing out.

   The inability to sell at the top.

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Was there ever a more dangerous combinations of emotions and skills.

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Conclusion: The Phoenix Will Rise Again — But When?

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Whether we’ve peaked or not, one thing is certain: the NASDAQ will crash again.

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And it will rise again.

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The names may change. The technologies will evolve. But the pattern remains eternal.

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If you’re a speculator, the lesson isn’t to avoid the NASDAQ — it’s to understand it. Know that manias always feel rational at the time. That tops are invisible until they’re behind you. And that when the music stops, the silence can last years.

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   “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” — John Maynard Keynes

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