Lithium Isn’t Dead - it’s More Alive Than Ever

For the past few years, investors have had to deal with price declines of more than 80% and headlines shouting the industry's demise, but savvy retail investors know better: lithium is far from obsolete - it may be entering one of its most compelling chapters yet. And despite its price crash, demand kept up as global EV sales continue to hit records, accounting for 20% of all new car sales last year.

The latest catalyst? On August 11, 2025, battery titan CATL abruptly suspended operations at its Yichun (Jianxiawo) lithium mine in Jiangxi province due to an expired mining license.

That single mine accounted for roughly 3% of global lithium output, making the shutdown a serious supply shock. Futures on the Guangzhou Exchange immediately hit their daily limit, jumping 8%, and lithium stocks - from Liontown to Albemarle - soared across markets. Alex Gluyas breaks it down in Lithium stocks rocket after major Chinese mine closes.

The notion that lithium might be on the cusp of a resurgence is now going mainstream.

Fresh Voices Join the Lithium Conversation
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As KeyBanc analyst Aleksey Yefremov cautiously reminded investors:

“Lithium inventories are rising and EV demand may be softening in China—but supply disruptions like this could change the trajectory.”

His measured take serves as a useful counterpoint—supply shocks matter, but fundamentals still matter more.

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The North American Spotlight: Three Mines Poised for Impact

The heart of the story, though, lies not just in disruption, but in opportunity - and North America is increasingly where the action is.
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1. North American Lithium (NAL) – Quebec

Jointly held (25% by Piedmont Lithium; 75% by Sayona Mining), NAL is North America’s largest producing spodumene mine. Recent drill results have confirmed high-grade lithium, supporting brownfield expansion plans and reinforcing its long-term production potential. Q1 2025 production has been impressive, setting a recovery record of 72% in March, even amidst weather-related hiccups.

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2. Thacker Pass – Nevada (Lithium Americas)

The largest known lithium deposit in the U.S., Thacker Pass is backed by a conditional $2.26 billion U.S. federal loan to support Phase 1 development. It’s aiming for mechanical completion by 2027 with full production coming online in 2028—potentially powering 800,000 EVs annually.

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3. Rhyolite Ridge – Nevada (Ioneer)

Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge project is unique - it’s one of just two worldwide with commercial grades of both lithium and boron. A feasibility study projects annual production of 20,000 tonnes of lithium materials and 170,000 tonnes of borates - and it's primed to unlock a new supply corridor, according to Wikipedia.

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The Narrative: Lithium is Back

The CATL shutdown has forced the market to reassess expectations. But coupled with North American projects that are accelerating toward production, the story gets richer. Here’s the takeaway for retail investors:

• Supply shocks end despair: CATL’s unexpected pause signals that supply-side constraints can return swiftly, reactivating price momentum.
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• North America is catching up - and fast: NAL is already producing. Thacker Pass and Rhyolite Ridge are scheduled to follow, adding tangible capacity with high governance and ESG standards.
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• Long-term demand remains strong: With EV adoption still a multiyear growth story, supply realignment could come just in time.

These dynamics suggest that lithium’s narrative isn’t one of a dead industry - but entering a chapter of reinvention, where supply reform and strategic production meet surging demand.
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^{Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.}

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