If you want to understand the next decade in markets, start with a barrel of oil.

Picture a loaded tanker inching through the Strait of Hormuz. One miscalculation in Tehran or Washington and that barrel isn’t worth $60 anymore. Suddenly it is worth $100. That ins't just an energy story; that’s inflation, bond markets, currencies, and political careers all repricing in real time.

In my recent conversation with veteran strategist Simon Hunt, he argued that whoever controls energy controls the terms of the global game. This is why the United States is intensifying pressure on countries like Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria.

On one side is the incumbent order led by the United States, still trying to maintain “energy dominance,” technological superiority, and the muscle of the military-industrial complex. On the other side is the BRICS bloc, with China and major commodity powers building a parallel system anchored to hard assets and trade independence (away from the US). Oil and gas sit at the fault line between these competing visions of the future.

Look at today’s geopolitical flashpoints and a pattern starts to form. Venezuela isn’t just a broken petrostate run by a socialist regime; it has the world’s largest known oil reserves. Nigeria isn’t just a tragic tribal and religious conflict; it’s a major producer with chronic underinvestment and corruption. Iran is both a regional power and a critical energy hub. Add Russia to that list and the picture changes again. Its hydrocarbons, metals and industrial base make it impossible to ignore. Suddenly “local” crises do not feel local at all.

For Hunt, the logic is simple: control the world’s energy and you retain global hegemonic status, if you’re America.

He sees the late 2020s unfolding through two potential paths. Both matter enormously for oil and gas, and our portfolios.

‍

Path One: Stagflation with Spiking Crude

Growth slows into mid-next year. Policymakers panic and flood the system with liquidity. Inflation outruns real GDP. Classic stagflation.

Now imagine a strike on Iran layered on top. Oil does not drift higher. It explodes higher. Hunt can easily see crude shooting above $150 a barrel in that scenario, with food prices rising in tandem. Bond markets would demand double-digit yields to continue holding government debt. A leveraged global financial system would begin to crack.

‍

Path Two: A Deeper Recession with the Same Destination

Growth deteriorates into a longer, grinding recession that lasts into 2028. Demand for industrial commodities weakens, but governments still attempt to soften the pain with debt and liquidity. The end result is similar: rising inflation, falling real yields, and a weakening U.S. dollar.

In that environment, investors shift toward things they can physically touch: land, metals, energy, and the equities tied to them. As in any story, conflict drives the plot. In energy markets, that conflict plays out between nations as much as companies.

‍

A New Volatility Regime for Oil and Gas

This is not a simple bullish or bearish call. It is a structural transition.

Western oil majors face ESG pressure, political scrutiny, higher taxes, and a decade of under-investment in world-class fields. National oil companies in OPEC+ and BRICS are consolidating control over the marginal barrel. Projects in Venezuela, Iran, and Nigeria are no longer just geological stories. They are geopolitical levers.

Now layer in the prospect of a monetary shift. BRICS countries have already begun experimenting with a trade framework where surpluses are held in gold instead of U.S. Treasuries. Imagine Saudi Arabia placing excess revenue in a gold account with China rather than buying American debt. That is already happening in small ways.

If more oil begins to be priced or settled in a BRICS-linked, gold-anchored unit, the petrodollar weakens. Hunt can imagine the U.S. Dollar Index falling from around 100 toward 50 by the late 2020s. That would be an extraordinary collapse. In that scenario, energy exporters aligned with the emerging system gain leverage, while import-dependent Western economies absorb a painful combination of currency weakness and higher energy costs, which would lead to a lower standard of living.

‍

The Market Setup

None of this implies a smooth path. Hunt still expects a sharp equity correction of roughly 20 to 30 percent around the second quarter of next year. The trigger could be an oil shock, a financial crisis, or both. He views this as the prelude to a final melt-up, where investors rush into equities and hard assets as inflation accelerates and confidence in monetary policy erodes. Oil and gas sit at the center of that shift.

‍

The Pinnacle Takeaway

This is not a call to buy every driller in sight. The point is that the world’s most important commodity is also its most important pressure point.

The struggle between a fading U.S.-centric system and a rising BRICS-oriented alternative is being fought through pipelines, shipping lanes, sanctions, currency settlements, and pricing power. Whether you invest directly in oil and gas or not, your portfolio is tied to the outcome.

If Simon Hunt’s broad map of the coming decade is even directionally right, the next major market moves will not be determined in Silicon Valley. They will be determined wherever the next contested barrel flows.

For investors, the key is understanding that energy’s role in the geopolitical chessboard is rising, not falling like some would have you think.