The Cobalt Conundrum: A Supply Shock that Could Reshape the Battery Economy

At first, it looked like just another export ban. But it was more.

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In June 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo, supplier of over 80% of the world’s cobalt, quietly extended its concentrate export ban for another three months. That’s 100,000 tonnes of critical battery material suddenly off the table. The markets blinked. Prices jumped 9% in China. And then?

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Silence.

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But don’t be fooled by the quiet. This isn’t a ripple. It’s a tremor—and it may foreshadow a tectonic shift in how the West approaches critical minerals, energy independence, and the very chemistry of the future. We've been covering the situation in the DRC for years. As investors we must consider the social implications in the DRC of children and the impoverished illegally mining cobalt.

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From Cobalt Oversupply to Choke Point

Not long ago, cobalt was in surplus. In early 2024, the market was swimming in supply, driven by overshooting production in the DRC and a flood of byproduct from Indonesian nickel mines. Cobalt prices fell to their lowest levels in nearly a decade—around $10 per pound.

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For a moment, the narrative was simple: The world has too much cobalt.

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Now? The script has flipped.

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Industry forecasts, like those from Commodity Insights and the Cobalt Institute, show the surplus drying up fast. From a glut of 53,000 tonnes in 2024 to just 28,000 tonnes this year. By 2027, we could be in deficit territory. Demand—fueled by electric vehicles, energy storage, and defense—is projected to exceed 400,000 tonnes annually by the early 2030s.

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And the world’s dominant supplier just turned off the tap.
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“The Pipeline is Running Out…”

That was the stark warning from Kenny Ives, Vice President at CMOC, one of the largest cobalt producers globally. Speaking at a Singapore panel in June, he didn’t mince words:

“China’s pipeline inventory was running out, and Congo needed to allow miners to freely export cobalt…”

That comment was more than just a market signal. It was a flare in the sky—China, which refines the majority of the world’s cobalt, is feeling the pinch. And Western automakers, already racing to secure supply chains, are now staring down a future where access to cobalt could determine competitiveness.

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Meanwhile, tensions inside the DRC are bubbling.

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Zack Hartwanger, head of Africa commercial at Open Mineral, added:

“Some [in government] raised concerns about revenues, employment, and informal supply chains.”

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Translation: the export ban isn’t just about global leverage—it’s about internal power struggles, lost income, and economic control. That uncertainty isn’t going away.
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The Long-Term Ripples of a Fragile Supply Chain

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This isn’t just a price spike—it’s a signal. And smart investors should be paying attention not just to the charts, but to the structure of the cobalt market.

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Here’s what we see coming down the pipeline:

* Volatility remains the norm – DRC’s unpredictable policies will continue to act as a supply-side weapon. Every ban, extension, or quota tweak could send futures spiking or collapsing.

* EVs aren’t slowing down – By 2030, over half of cobalt demand will be tied to EV battery production. The electrification of transportation is a freight train, and it needs cobalt—at least for now.

* Technology is adapting – Prolonged cobalt shortages are accelerating interest in alternative chemistries, like LFP (lithium-iron-phosphate), which don’t use cobalt. But transitioning isn’t instant. It requires redesigns, infrastructure changes, and regulatory clearance.

* The West wants out of DRC dependence – And that brings us to the most important shift of all.

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The Rise of Domestic Supply: Canada and the U.S. Step Up

If the DRC and China are the geopolitical choke-points globally, North America may be the escape hatch.

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🇺🇸 Idaho Cobalt Operations (ICO) – Idaho, USA

After lying dormant for decades, the U.S.’s only primary cobalt mine was reopened by Jervois Global. With ~3.8 million tonnes of ore grading 0.5% cobalt, ICO represents a critical test case: can America produce its own cobalt, ethically and at scale? In May of 2025, ICO reported Jervois emerges as a recapitalised private U.S. controlled group. Click here to read the entire press release.

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🇨🇦 Electra Battery Materials – Ontario, Canada

More than just a mine, Electra operates North America’s first permitted cobalt refinery, and it's been greenlit by the U.S. Department of Defense to receive funding. With supply agreements inked with LG Energy and plans to integrate battery recycling, this isn’t just about mining—it’s about closing the loop.

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These are just two of a growing number of Western efforts to diversify the cobalt supply chain, and they represent a subtle but powerful shift: critical minerals are no longer just commodities—they’re strategic assets.

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What Happens Next for Cobalt?

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The export ban is temporary. Maybe it lifts in September. Maybe it doesn’t.

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But the bigger takeaway is this: we’re entering an era where resource access is as much about politics as geology. And in that world, price charts won’t tell the whole story.

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For investors, especially retail ones watching from the sidelines, this is a reminder to zoom out. The companies that thrive in the next commodity cycle won’t just be lucky. They’ll be positioned, politically and structurally, for what’s coming.

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Cobalt is no longer just a metal. It’s leverage. And whoever controls it, controls more than just the price, they control the pace of innovation. While some investors shrug off EVs, they would be wise to recognize the record-breaking sales in 2024 - over 17 million EVs sold worldwide as EVs now account for about 20% of all new car sales globally.

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