The Last Melt-Up Before the Fall: David Hunter’s 2025 Warning for Investors

Imagine being on a roller coaster that only climbs, defying gravity for what feels like forever - until it doesn’t.

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Veteran macro strategist David Hunter thinks the U.S. markets are about to take that final ascent. After correctly predicting the S&P 500’s rise from 3500 to above 6000, he now sees the index reaching 8000, the Nasdaq reaching 27,000, and even gold near $4,000 - all before a historic deflationary bust triggers the most severe downturn since the Great Depression.

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It’s a controversial call. But Hunter’s had some big calls come true in recent years. In our latest Podcast, he joins Alex and lays out a roadmap for what could become the most important investment forecast of the decade.

Setting the Stage: A Global Powder Keg

Hunter doesn’t throw around predictions lightly. With more than five decades on Wall Street, he’s seen euphoric booms and crushing busts. But what’s coming next, he argues, is unprecedented.

“We’re talking about a bust that feels like a depression—probably bigger. Something like 2008–09 on steroids.”

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While some analysts are already declaring a bear market or recession underway, Hunter disagrees. He believes we’re entering the final phase of a parabolic melt-up, driven by investor FOMO, rate cuts, and short-covering - before the world wakes up to the underlying economic fragility, exessive leverage and mounting debt.

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The Calm Before the Storm: What Will Drive the Melt-Up

According to Hunter, the U.S. economy is already in recession—even if the Fed hasn’t acknowledged it yet. But paradoxically, that’s bullish in the short term.

“I think it’ll become clear before the end of this quarter that we’re in a recession. And that’s what will push the Fed to ease aggressively.”

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Hunter sees the Fed slashing rates as early as this summer, possibly reigniting risk-on sentiment. Combine that with resolution—or even perception of resolution—in global trade tensions, and the result could be an everything rally:

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   S&P 500 to 8000

   Nasdaq to 27,000

   Russell 2000 to 3300

   Gold to $4000

   Silver to $75

   Copper to $6

   Semiconductors to double

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It sounds absurd—until you realize just how emotional markets can be.

‍“Investor psychology is the most powerful emotion in the world. More powerful than love or hate.”

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The Fall: Economic Collapse 2025

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But what goes up…

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Once markets peak—potentially between August and September 2025—Hunter expects the tide to turn violently.

“We’ve got $300 trillion in global debt and extreme economic fragility beneath the surface. Add central bank policy error and you have the perfect storm.”

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His base case? A deflationary bust that wipes out between 50% and 90% of asset values, triggered by rising defaults, vanishing liquidity, and a banking system in freefall.

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The timing? It could begin by late 2025 and last through 2026, leading to:

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   Treasury yields crashing below 2%, potentially to zero

   Stocks down 50–80%

   Real estate falling 30–40%

   Commodities collapsing—oil to $30, copper to $1–2

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And perhaps most controversially: gold falling back to $2100 before beginning its next leg higher.

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The Fed’s “Volcker” Trap

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A major part of Hunter’s thesis is that central banks will react too slowly.

"Powell wants to be Volcker. He’s going to hold off easing even when the system is falling apart."

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But that stance won’t last.

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Once financial contagion sets in—likely triggered by bank failures, sovereign defaults, or liquidity crises—Hunter says the Fed will panic:

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“The balance sheet could blow up to $30 trillion or more. They’ll buy every debt instrument they can find.”

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In other words, QE on steroids. And that’s when the real fireworks begin.

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The Rebirth: Boom After Bust

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If the bust is the valley, Hunter also sees the next peak.

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He envisions a massive reflationary boom beginning by 2027, driven by global QE, reshoring, and commodity demand.

“We could see $500 oil, $25 copper, $20,000 gold, and $500 silver by early next decade.”

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Why? Because central banks will overshoot. Governments will print like never before. And supply chains—especially in energy and metals—won’t be able to keep up. The result? A multi-year commodity supercycle, with gold and silver as the ultimate beneficiaries.

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A Final Word: Prepare, Don’t Predict

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Hunter’s message isn’t about fear—it’s about foresight.

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He’s not just calling for an economic collapse in 2025. He’s showing investors the path through it: position early, take profits during the melt-up, then brace for the bust.

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And most importantly—don’t get stuck in consensus thinking.

“Wall Street’s always either all-in or all-out. But the truth is more nuanced. If you wait for the headlines, it’s already too late.”

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I'll leave you with two final quotes from David:

“Investor psychology is the most powerful emotion in the world”

And, finally,

“This melt-up will be the largest in market history—but it’s the last one.”

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