The Silent Coup Against the Dollar: Why Gold May Be America’s Last Move

‍They won’t announce it. Not yet.

If the U.S. government is buying gold, it’s happening in the shadows — quietly, deliberately, far from the headlines. And if that’s true, it could be the most significant monetary shift in our lifetimes.

We’re not talking about price predictions. We’re talking about a regime change in the financial world — the kind of seismic transition that only becomes obvious when it’s too late to act.

In a recent conversation with Tavi Costa, partner and portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, the implications of this potential silent shift were laid bare. And if he’s right, the next decade could belong not to U.S. equities or even tech... but to hard assets, emerging markets, and most controversially: gold.

The Domino Is the Dollar

Tavi’s macro view is built on something terrifyingly simple:

“We’re approaching a point where the only way to avoid a debt spiral is to slash interest rates — not raise them.”

The problem? The U.S. isn’t just carrying debt -- it’s drowning in it. Servicing that debt now makes up nearly 5% of GDP — a number that dwarfs even the most indebted G7 nations.

This creates a kind of policy straitjacket: interest rates must come down. But doing so weakens the dollar. And a weakening dollar changes everything, including the quality of life for Americans, a.k.a. voters...

According to Tavi, this isn't just a theory — it's history repeating.

Echoes of 1933 and 1985

The U.S. dollar has only been this overvalued twice before: in 1933 and 1985.

In '33, the U.S. was dragged into the global currency wars, forced to abandon the gold standard just to keep its economy breathing. In '85, the Plaza Accord coordinated a deliberate devaluation of the dollar to give breathing room to America’s trading partners.

Today, there’s no coordination. No accords. No trust.

“We may be facing a 1933 moment,” Tavi warned. “But this time, there’s no gold standard to break — only trust in fiat.”

So what does a 21st-century superpower do when it’s trapped between sovereign debt, inflation, and a currency too strong to allow global growth?

Tavi’s answer: You buy gold. Quietly. Aggressively. Before anyone notices.

What If the U.S. Is Already Buying?

Here’s where the narrative twists — where Costa, the macro strategist, becomes Costa, the monetary detective.

He lays out the clues:

• Foreign central banks are buying gold at the fastest pace in half a century. The U.S., meanwhile, is silent.
• Gold reserves in the U.S. are at a 9-year low. Yet imports continue. Where is it going?
• Talk of gold in official U.S. policy is virtually nonexistent. But would you announce you’re buying something you need to keep cheap?

“If you’re serious about accumulating gold, you don’t tell the world you’re doing it,” Tavi said. “You buy it. Then you announce it.”

And if that’s the case — if the U.S. is stealthily accumulating gold in the background — then gold isn’t just going higher.

It could be setting up one of its biggest moves in years.

Asymmetric Bets in a Broken System

Tavi doesn’t waste time on weekly price movements or newsletter doomsday forecasts. His focus is squarely on asymmetry. Here are a few of his thoughts on silver, oil and gold.

• In recent years silver was trading at $17... Maybe it drops to $15, people said. Maybe. But the upside? $50… or higher.
• Oil at $70? Sure, it could dip to $60. But what happens when geopolitics finally catches up with fundamentals?
• Gold? Even a 2% backing of U.S. debt — up from today’s 0.2% — implies a price much higher than today.

The point isn’t to make wild predictions. The point is that the imbalance is historic. And asymmetry is the opportunity.

“The U.S. is still increasing its debt exponentially, while we’re talking about how to distribute dividends from imaginary surpluses,” Tavi said with a dry laugh. “That’s the level of delusion we’re at.”

Emerging Markets: The Comeback Nobody Saw Coming

If the dollar breaks, what rushes in to fill the vacuum?

Tavi sees signs of life everywhere U.S. capital has ignored:

• Japanese equities getting attention from Warren Buffett
• Chinese markets catching the eye of David Tepper
• Commodities stabilizing as U.S. yields and dollar strength fade

“We’re seeing the early signs of a rotation — out of U.S. exceptionalism and into global opportunity,” Tavi noted. “This is what a turn in the cycle looks like.”

It won’t be smooth. There will be panic, dips, corrections — the kind that scare even seasoned investors.

But for those paying attention, those are buy signals, not red flags.

A Silent Coup in Progress

What if this is all by design?

What if the U.S. must let the dollar fall, while quietly accumulating gold to unleash the next wave of global reflation?

“Imagine being the U.S.,” Tavi said. “You can’t say you’re devaluing the dollar. But you know it has to happen. You can’t say you’re buying gold. But maybe you are.”

The market isn’t watching gold... It’s still obsessed with tech multiples and Fed dot plots.

Final Thought: This Is the Moment

This is the kind of moment macro investors dream of. When the old order starts to wobble, and a new one begins to rise from the cracks.

It’s not a time for forecasts. It’s a time for frameworks.

And the framework Tavi Costa laid out is simple:

• Hard assets over debt-based paper
• Global diversification over U.S. dominance
• Reality over narrative

There’s still time to act. But maybe not much.

Because if Tavi is right, the coup against the dollar has already begun — and gold may be the only way to opt out quietly.