Canada’s Economic Future in the Balance: Spencer Fernando on the 2025 Election

Canada is barreling toward what many are calling the most consequential election in a generation. That phrase, often overused, may finally apply. But this time, the stakes aren’t just about leadership or party ideology. They’re about whether Canada can reclaim its footing in a rapidly shifting world—or continue sliding toward economic irrelevance.

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In our latest Pinnacle Digest podcast, political analyst Spencer Fernando cuts through the noise to focus on the issue that transcends all others: Canada’s economic future. As he bluntly puts it:

“If you were trying to make a country poorer on a per capita basis… you’d do exactly what Canada’s been doing.”

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The Enemy: Complacency in a Fracturing World

For decades, Canada thrived under the assumption that the United States would always be a stable partner. But Trump’s return has shattered that illusion. Today, he sees Canada not as a friend, but a competitor - and a weak one at that. With threats of tariffs, annexation, and trade retaliation, the U.S. no longer feels like the safety net it once was.

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At home, the economic warning signs are even more dire. Pipelines are paralyzed. Innovation is suppressed by over-regulation. And tax policy punishes those who try to build. Fernando pulls no punches:

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“We’ve got smart people, resources, access to markets… and yet we’re falling behind because we can’t get out of our own way.”

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And still, much of the political class campaigns as if we’re in 2005. The world is changing fast. But Ottawa remains stuck.

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The Obstacle: A Stalled, Uncompetitive Economy

Fernando calls it plainly: Canada’s economy is not working. Productivity growth has flatlined for more than a decade. Public-sector jobs are eclipsing private-sector innovation. Entrepreneurs are leaving. Investors are hesitant.

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“Canada should be an autopilot economy... But we’re actively driving it into the ditch.”

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The political response? Population growth to boost GDP headlines—without improving per capita outcomes. The result: stagnation disguised as progress.

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Even our energy sector, the backbone of our economic engine, is shackled. Carbon taxes and federal legislation like Bill C-69 have created bottlenecks. And yet, when pushed, political leaders sidestep solutions.

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“If we don’t build pipelines, we remain dependent on the States,” Fernando warns.

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Carney vs. Poilievre: Competing Visions for Canada’s Economic Future

This election pits two sharply contrasting visions for Canada's economic trajectory:

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• Mark Carney – Former central banker, polished and pragmatic. Calm in crisis.

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But does he represent change—or merely a rebranded continuation of Trudeau-era policy?

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“Carney always seems like he knows what he’s talking about—even when he’s BSing,” Fernando quips. “That calm demeanor sells in a crisis.”

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Yet Carney’s party has spent years growing government, increasing taxes, and discouraging private-sector risk-taking. Can he really pivot?

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• Pierre Poilievre – Bold, contrarian, policy-focused. Speaks directly to the affordability crisis and younger Canadians disillusioned with the status quo.
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He’s not a populist firebrand—he’s a technocrat with sharp elbows.

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“Polievre is not very socially conservative,” Fernando explains. “That’s helped him connect with young people who care most about affordability and opportunity.”

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But Poilievre faces structural challenges. With NDP voters flowing back to the Liberals, even a strong campaign may not be enough.

What’s at Stake: Sovereignty, Competitiveness, and National Unity

This election won’t just shape policy—it will test the economic cohesion of the nation itself.

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National unity is no longer abstract. In Alberta, 20–25% of the population now supports separation. “Carney will win with Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada,” says Fernando. “If he doesn’t act fast, Western frustration will explode.”

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Meanwhile, the brain drain is accelerating. Canada’s top entrepreneurs, financiers, and innovators are relocating - either through their companies or with their employees and more often even themselves.

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Deals once built in Toronto or Calgary are now brokered in Texas, Dubai, or London.

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“Ten years ago, they never left Canada,” Fernando says. “Now they’re gone. And they’re not coming back unless we get competitive again.”

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Young people—once the NDP’s core demographic—are now leaning Conservative. Why? Because they can’t afford to live, start a family, or build wealth under current policies. This generational inversion is a symptom of deeper economic decay.

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This Is Canada’s Economic Tipping Point

This election may determine whether Canada has an economic future at all—one where innovation thrives, competitiveness returns, and talent chooses to stay.

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Complacency has ruled Ottawa for too long. But now, the world is shifting. And if Canada doesn’t act—markets, foreign governments, or internal division will force change upon us.

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As Spencer Fernando says: “The real risk isn’t Trump. It’s that we don’t take control of our future—and someone else does.”

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