The Calm Before the Gold Storm: Why the Juniors Haven’t Run—Yet

There’s a strange quiet in the junior gold sector. And anyone who knows the playbook is asking the same question: Why haven’t the juniors run?

Senior miners are posting record cash flows. Central banks are piling into gold. Even Costco can’t keep gold bars on the shelves. And yet, most juniors (exploration and development-stage), the heartbeat of future supply, have barely budged.

It’s the calm before the storm. And Nomi Prins sees the clouds forming, as she explained on a recent podcast with Pinnacle.

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Act I: The Lagging Juniors

Historically, gold bull markets begin with the majors. Then, once capital flows and M&A activity pick up, juniors explode, often delivering the parabolic returns speculators live for. But that hasn’t happened. Not yet.

Prins believes that changes in the second half of 2025.

Why?

Because macro forces are aligning:

1. The Fed has paused but hasn’t cut—yet.

2. U.S. debt is nearing $37 trillion, and the long end of the curve is broken.

3. Growth is slowing, jobless claims are rising, and GDP already posted a negative print.

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In short, the dream of soft landings is colliding with the nightmare of hard math.

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Act II: The Great Repricing

There’s a Hero vs Society story unfolding here: the individual investor and the junior exploration company are up against the inertia of a global monetary system that’s losing credibility. As trust erodes in sovereign debt, gold becomes more than a hedge, it becomes a statement.

Institutions have started to notice. Prins points to a $75 billion wave of capital that just entered the gold space, the first major reversal in years. It’s not just central banks buying anymore. Retail is back. “I had to hire two more staff just to handle the walk-in flow,” one veteran gold dealer told her.

From local shops to Costco, people are buying gold. But they’re not selling it back.

This is what the early stage of monetary rebellion looks like.

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Act III: The Catalyst Is Coming

Nomi Prins forecasts 100 basis points of rate cuts this year. Not because the Fed wants to, but because it has to. The U.S. is already paying nearly $1 trillion a year in interest. Treasury bond yields remain elevated, and the Fed’s balance sheet is still bleeding.

To close the gap between short and long-term yields, the Fed may not just cut, it may resume quantitative easing. The return of easy money would light a fire under gold. And finally… under the juniors and other speculative assets.

But not all juniors will rise. Prins believes the capital will flow into companies with:


✅ Permits in place


✅ Tier-one jurisdictions


✅ Relationships that matter in the mining business

These are the juniors the majors are quietly hunting now, before the next leg up.

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Final Thought: The Objective Asset

As the world drifts toward multi-polar trade blocs, gold is becoming the objective collateral; the physical anchor behind currency swaps and trade settlements. Not a return to the gold standard, but something more subtle:

A new system where gold provides credibility without words.

Every time the U.S. and China discuss trade, gold rises. It’s not about diplomacy; it’s about distrust.

And in that climate, the juniors aren’t just exploration bets. They’re leverage on a global shift. DYODD. Juniors aren't for the faint of heart...