The Fertility Crisis: Too Few People Will Break the System

This isn’t the next financial crash or political scandal. It won’t make headlines like war or climate change. But this is the most dangerous idea shaping the 21st century economy:

We’re running out of people.

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As global birth rates plummet, the very foundation of our economic and social structures — built on perpetual growth and consumption — begins to crack. Canada is on the front lines of the fertility crisis. China is already shrinking. Real estate markets are overbuilding into a demographic void. And no amount of tax breaks or free childcare seems to be turning it around.

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What happens when there are too few people left to buy what we’re selling?

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The Dangerous Idea No One Wants to Face

Dr. Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs and co-author of Empty Planet, has a warning: the fertility crisis is not only real — it's irreversible.

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While mainstream narratives focus on overpopulation and climate, Bricker argues we’re missing the real story. “What if the real crisis isn’t too many people on Earth, but too few?”

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The global population is set to peak by 2040. In places like Canada, fertility rates have already fallen to 1.2 — far below the replacement rate of 2.1. In China, it’s even lower. India is now under 2.0. Most of Europe has been there for decades.

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And here's the kicker: no society in history has reversed this kind of demographic decline.

Why Culture Is the Catalyst

Blame capitalism. Blame modernity. Blame choice. But at the heart of the fertility crisis is culture.

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Bricker found the pattern across continents. As women gain access to higher education and careers, and as families prioritize lifestyle over lineage, birth rates fall. The traditional motivators — religion, nationalism, legacy — are fading.

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“We’ve created a society that values everything but children,” Bricker explains. “Even with all the right financial incentives, people aren’t choosing to have more kids. Because they don’t want to.”

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Dogs have replaced toddlers. Instagram travel feeds have replaced family photo albums. Parenthood is increasingly viewed as a burden — or a threat to personal freedom.

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This cultural shift is global. And it’s accelerating.

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Real Estate’s Reckoning as Fertility Crisis Accelerates

The implications aren’t abstract. They’re economic — and they start with real estate.

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Canada’s property market, long viewed as an unshakeable pillar of wealth, is at risk. As the population ages and household formation collapses, demand for housing is beginning to decouple from supply.

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“We’re overbuilding in places that are already losing people,” Bricker warns. “Immigration is a short-term plug, not a long-term fix. Eventually, we all start competing for the same dwindling pool of newcomers.”

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Downtown condos in cities like Toronto and Calgary are no longer the aspirational dream. Aging populations want space, not skyboxes. And young people — fewer of them — are looking elsewhere or not forming families at all.

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The Consumption Collapse

Most economic models assume a growing base of young consumers. But what happens when that base evaporates?

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An aging society consumes less. Seniors don’t drive demand for new tech, fashion, or home goods. They require services — mostly public, mostly expensive.

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The fertility crisis isn’t just about who’s having babies. It’s about who’s buying, renting, working, and paying taxes. Without them, GDP growth slows. Debt becomes harder to service. Entire industries shrink.

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And that’s not a tomorrow problem — it’s already happening in Japan. Soon, it’ll be everywhere.

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The Three Responses to the Fertility Crisis

As Bricker explains, governments and thought leaders are falling into three camps:

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1. The Degrowthers

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They celebrate population decline as a victory for the planet. Less consumption, less destruction. This group is growing in influence, particularly among climate activists.

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2. The Technocratic Optimists

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They believe better incentives can fix it. Make childcare free. Eliminate the motherhood penalty. Offer baby bonuses. So far, no country has reversed its birthrate through policy alone.

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3. The Natalist Revivalists

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Elon Musk is their icon. So are Orthodox Jewish and Mormon communities. Their solution? Embrace tradition — and use tech to make family life easier. Some advocate for state-sponsored dating apps and AI childcare.

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So far, none of these camps has a clear win.

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The Clock Is Ticking — Especially in Canada

Canada’s population is propped up by immigration. But as birth rates fall in traditional source countries like India and China, the competition for skilled migrants will intensify.

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And when immigration dries up, what’s left?

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“We're going to see a long-term decline in real estate values,” Bricker predicts. “Not because of a crash — but because of a slow fade. Fewer buyers. Fewer households. And aging homeowners staying put.”

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He sees real risk in overbuilding, especially in downtown urban cores. “This isn’t 1975. Growth isn’t guaranteed anymore. Cities need to stop planning like it is.”

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Final Thought: A Deflationary World Order?

What began as a quiet demographic shift is becoming an economic avalanche. Fewer people means less demand. Less demand means slower growth. Slower growth means rising debt burdens.

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The fertility crisis isn’t just about families. It’s about the future of markets, real estate, consumption, taxation, and ultimately — national survival.

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There is no easy solution. But there is a ticking clock. This isn’t science fiction. It’s Statistics Canada. With a birthrate of 1.26 we said goodbye to the replacement rate of 2.1 a long, long time ago. Sadly, the fertility crisis has already begun.

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