Copper’s Breaking Point: Why America’s Next Copper Mines Won’t Arrive in Time

There’s a moment in every commodity bull market when the charts stop mattering.
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Not because price is unimportant, but because what is driving price discovery can no longer be ignored. The problem is no longer “is demand strong?” or “are inventories tight?” The problem becomes mechanical. Physical.
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Copper, the red metal, has entered that phase.
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And the first sign wasn’t a headline about electric vehicles or solar farms. It wasn’t a government stimulus plan or a bullish bank report.
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It was zero. In early January, Shanaka Anslem Perera wrote in The Red Metal Singularity | Why Every Institutional Model Calibrated to Copper Surplus Is About to Break, that,
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“The benchmark treatment and refining charge for copper concentrate in 2026 was set at zero dollars per tonne.”

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What does that mean? Perera continues,

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"For the first time in the four-decade history of the benchmark system, Chinese smelters agreed to process Chilean copper concentrate without receiving a single dollar in compensation."

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That is not normal. It perfectly accentuates the desperateness for copper.

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Zero means something much darker: the copper market’s traditional balancing mechanism is breaking. Smelters, normally paid to turn concentrate into refined copper, are suddenly in a world where concentrate scarcity is so severe that processing fees can collapse… and in parts of the market even go negative.

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When that happens, models calibrated to a copper surplus start to fail, because they were built for a world where high prices summon new supply quickly.

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But copper no longer works like that.

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The United States, desperate to rebuild infrastructure, electrify the grid, and secure domestic critical mineral supply chains, now faces a brutal question:

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Can America build the next generation of copper mines fast enough?

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The answer, increasingly, is no. And this is a problem for the reasons we're about to outline below.

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Copper is not optional: Check out the top 10 uses of the red metal below.

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It is civilization wiring, and its demand is quietly spreading into everything:
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• Power grid wiring and transmission
• Transformers and substations
• EV motors, inverters, and wiring harnesses
• Charging infrastructure
• Solar and wind interconnections
• Data centers (the AI buildout’s hidden metal)
• Consumer electronics
• Telecommunications and 5G hardware
• Plumbing and HVAC systems
• Industrial machinery, rail and electrified transport

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If oil fueled the 20th century, copper wires the 21st.

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And that’s exactly why the copper deficit story is so dangerous: you can’t substitute away from copper at scale without rewriting modern engineering.

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The deficit is no longer theoretical

For years, most mainstream institutions were comfortable with the “balanced market” narrative.

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Prices rise → supply responds → miners spend capex → new projects arrive → surplus returns.

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That’s what the models expect.

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But the market is now staring at a supply chain that is failing at multiple points simultaneously, ore grades, time-to-production, and the smelter bottleneck.

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In The Red Metal Singularity, Perera puts it bluntly:

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“The time from copper deposit discovery to first commercial production has extended… to nearly eighteen years for mines reaching production in the 2020s.”

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That one sentence should terrify anyone still assuming copper behaves like a normal cycle.

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Eighteen years means even if copper hits record prices… the supply response doesn’t show up until a newborn child is graduating high school.

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Meanwhile the demand shock is happening now.

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And the “deficit forecasts” are increasing:

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• ICSG expects refined copper to swing into a 2026 deficit (~150,000 tonnes).
• UBS (via Reuters) estimated deficits rising to roughly 407,000 tonnes.
• Morgan Stanley (also via Reuters) has highlighted the possibility of deficits closer to 600,000 tonnes in 2026 scenarios.

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S&P Global warns the longer-term gap could reach ~10 million tonnes by 2040 without huge supply growth.

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So yes, copper is going to be needed.

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The real question becomes: where will it come from?

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America’s next 5 major copper mines coming online

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Let’s get practical. If you’re an investor in the copper cycle, especially with a North American security angle, here’s the short list of projects that matter.

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Not because they’re interesting.

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Because they’re among the few that are real.

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1) Florence Copper (Arizona) | Taseko

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Florence is one of the rare copper projects that feels like it’s operating under the laws of reality instead of PowerPoint.

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It’s built for copper cathode, domestic-friendly units, and it’s in the heart of America’s copper country.

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Location: Arizona

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Expected annual output: 85M lbs/yr (~40k tonnes/yr)

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Capex / spend: historical spend >$135M, remaining capex ~$232M cited

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Timing: Aiming for production in early 2026

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Why it matters: In a world where copper projects take 18 years, Florence is among the few positioned to add meaningful supply in the near term.

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2) Copper World Phase I (Arizona) | Hudbay

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This is Arizona scale.

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A real multi-decade development that could become one of the most important U.S. copper supply sources, if it gets fully permitted.

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Operator: Hudbay

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Expected annual output: ~85,000 tonnes/year over 20 years (Phase I PFS)

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Cash costs: ~$1.47/lb, sustaining cash costs ~$1.81/lb (PFS)

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Why it matters: If supply deficits are real, projects like Copper World are the only ones that actually move the needle.

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But the risk is political and financial: copper mines don’t just need ore, they need permission.

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3) Johnson Camp (Arizona) | Gunnison Copper + Nuton (Rio Tinto)

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This one is sneaky because it’s not giant like Resolution or Copper World.

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But it’s producing.

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That alone makes it important.

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Status: announced first copper sales and ramping production

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Expected output: 25M lbs/yr copper cathode nameplate

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This is part of a larger shift: new technology (leaching, processing innovations) could help unlock more supply from lower-grade material.

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In Perera’s framing, this becomes crucial because ore grades are declining and energy requirements are rising.

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Old mining assumptions don’t hold.

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4) Black Butte (Montana) | Sandfire Resources

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Montana isn’t the first place most retail investors think of when they think copper.

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But that’s exactly why it deserves attention.

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It has a path to production, real engineering, and relatively meaningful expected output.

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Capex: ~$474M construction capital cost (updated PFS)

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Planned output: ~35,000 tpa copper contained in first four years

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Why it matters: it’s a reminder that U.S. copper supply will likely come not only from “mega mines,” but from smaller, high-grade underground builds.

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5) Resolution Copper (Arizona) | Rio Tinto / BHP

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Resolution is the monster.

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The sleeping giant.

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The mine that could fundamentally change America’s domestic copper equation.

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It is also the mine that proves Perera’s point. It takes a long time to get a copper mine permitted in most U.S. states.

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Discovered: 1996

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Spend to date: reported >$2B invested

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Why it matters: Resolution is copper’s paradox.

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It’s the mine America needs.

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It’s also the mine that shows why copper supply will not simply respond to price.

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Even with billions spent, world-class partners, and strategic logic, Resolution is still caught in the reality of engineering complexity and social license.

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The trap: investors think copper supply responds to price

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Here’s the dangerous misconception:

• Copper hits new highs → miners start building → supply returns → surplus crushes price.
• That’s how commodities used to work.
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But copper has entered a new regime:

• Ore grades decline → costs rise
• Processing bottlenecks emerge → Treatment charges and refining charges collapse
• Permitting timelines stretch → supply response delayed
• Demand growth accelerates → deficits appear earlier than expected

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This is what Perera means by a singularity, a point where the models stop predicting the future because the system changed.

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In other words:

• Copper isn’t becoming scarce slowly. It’s becoming scarce suddenly.
• The investor takeaway (and why this matters for juniors)

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If the deficit forecasts are even partially correct, copper’s next cycle will be led by projects that have:‍

• real permits (or credible timeline)
• manageable capex
• clean metallurgy
• jurisdictional safety
• access to power/water
• proximity to infrastructure
• community/social license assured

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Because in 2026, copper isn’t just about demand.
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It’s about which projects can actually get built.
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And that, more than any copper price forecast, is the investment edge.

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Bottom line

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Copper is approaching a moment where the world realizes supply is not a lever that can be pulled at will.

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It’s a geological reality. A political reality. A time reality.

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The U.S. has projects in the queue, but the list is short, and the timelines are long.

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And while Wall Street argues over whether the deficit is 150,000 tonnes or 600,000 tonnes, the real story is simpler:

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We are entering a world where copper scarcity becomes a defining feature of capital allocation.

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And once that realization spreads, once the market admits that “price can’t fix this quickly”, the copper trade stops being cyclical.

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It becomes structural.

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