Chris Vermeulen, the founder and Chief Market Strategist for The Technical Traders, forecasts a significant decline in U.S. equities. In our latest exclusive interview, Chris lays out his thesis that the markets are in a topping phase and may only rise another 5% before a dramatic decline. Unsurprisingly, the long-time gold bull believes precious metals are about to enter a super cycle.
Chris opens up about how he cut his teeth in the markets and the bumpy road that led him to pure technical trading. He believes that discipline is the most essential characteristic of a successful trader.
Almost Time to Sell S&P 500?
Chris explains his philosophy as it relates to the market, noting,
“I like to always look at the stock market like the ocean. The tide is either rising and we want to own equities, or the tide is either going down and we want to probably look at a different asset class while stocks are generally falling.”
And that,
“The trend is still up… it has a nice little pattern that is still pointing to another 5 or 6% rally.”
But ultimately, Chris surmises,
“I believe we are in a topping phase. Putting money to work right now is like maximum financial risk. I think we’re at the top of a financial cycle, economic cycle, and really we want to make sure we protect our capital as the market corrects or profit from it, and then we want to redeploy that capital at a cycle low.”
Chris also mentions the unemployment rate crossing above its 24-month moving average. When the unemployment rate spikes, the market nearly always declines; furthermore, Chris mentions the declining savings among Americans and the record consumer debt.
He believes after the broad market decline,
“Precious metals are going to rise from the ashes.”
Vermeulen believes the charts point to one last leg up, about 5-7% before the markets roll over. He also believes equities will top at the beginning or middle of July.
Silver Pauses, but Chris Vermeulen Sees Much Higher Highs
Longer term, Chris believes silver will trade to a high above $80 per ounce. Silver and gold are taking a breather, according to Vermeulen, but he is bullish on their chart patterns. He is forecasting both metals to be range-bound into September. However, Chris believes the chart is forming a bull-flag pattern that will bring silver to $34-$36 per ounce later this year.
Chris Forecasts WTI Crash to $35 Per Barrel
From rising unemployment to slowing business activity, oil demand is weakening.
“The music’s coming to an end. And so people are just unloading oil positions. Or betting on the short side.”
And that, using Fibonacci extensions to forecast downside moves,
“It is pointing down to $35 per barrel.”
He points to how many times (5) oil has hit $35 per barrel in the past 20 years. So, if we are fading into a recession (as many pundits suggest), oil could be one of the casualties – potentially falling more than 50% from its current level, according to Vermeulen.
Chris Targeting 40%+ Market Decline in U.S. Equities
Chris doesn’t want to hold equities through a steep decline or down market… who does? So, Chris’ strategy is to bet against the S&P 500 via inverse ETFs leading up to and during bear markets, which go up when the market drops. In a bear market, stocks go down on average; however, Chris warns that being short in the market is an entirely different game and mindset. Short trades are not for the long-term.
Chris Focuses on a Strategy of Rotation
As to why most traders lose money, Chris notes,
“It’s because they’re emotional, and they’re constantly at the tale end, having FOMO, and they want to get on the strategy that’s working for everyone else — versus seeing it and saying we’re changing gears, this next strategy here over the next couple of months or years is going to work really well. So we walk into it ready to go.”
Chris doesn’t like leverage and uses his technical trading strategy to consistently pull money out of the market through disciplined investing. He is not an ‘active trader’ in the traditional sense of the word, and looks to make about a dozen trades per year.
Chris Vermeulen’s book Asset Revesting—How to Exclusively Hold Assets Rising in Value, Profit During Bear Markets, and Continue Building Wealth in Retirement, examines his strategy in depth.
In the latest Pinnacle Digest Podcast, Chris Vermeulen gives investors a lot to think about; from a market showing signs of topping, to a U.S. economy flashing warnings of weakening. Finally, Chris believes gold and silver stocks are nearing an ideal moment to invest. He believes precious metals are nearing the beginning of a generational supercycle that could see miners soar in value…