On November 8th, four states with a cumulative population of nearly 1.5 times that of Canada voted to legalize marijuana. We predicted this would set pot stocks ablaze (pun intended) in an October 23rd Weekly Volume; and also predicted most marijuana stocks would hit short-term peaks following the outcome of this vote.
Not to downplay what November 8th represents for the ongoing acceptance of marijuana, but the media has a way of driving unsophisticated masses into whichever sector is hot at the moment.
To recap, recreational marijuana was approved in California, Maine, Massachusetts and Nevada, joining states such as Colorado and Washington which have approved similar laws. Florida, Arkansas and North Dakota approved medical marijuana, bringing the number of states with such a system to over two dozen. As more states in the U.S., along with countries around the world (Canada targeting 2017 for recreational use legislation), step up to legalize recreational and/or medical marijuana, entrepreneurs and policy makers are rushing to capitalize on the influx in demand.
In our October 23rd Weekly Volume we warned the sector was going parabolic, writing,
“We see the sector temporarily peaking within 60 days of November 8th, after California approves the plant for recreational use.”
As we now know, this came to fruition and bellwether stocks such as Canopy Growth rallied to new all-time highs. The marijuana grower’s shares closed at CAD$7.75 on November 8th, before briefly touching a high of CAD$17.86 on November 16th.
Canopy Growth 1-Year Stock Chart
*Canopy Growth has retreated more than 30% from its November 16th high.
In our Weekly Volume from October 23rd, we wrote:
“With marijuana hype and valuations rising at a ridiculous clip, the slightest negative shift in sentiment could send the sector tail spinning 20% overnight.”
In Canada, investors are continuing to bet the marijuana industry is in its infancy; and, as Trudeau looks to make good on his promise to legalize the drug from coast to coast next year, investor frenzy will likely retest previous highs in 2017.
Don’t get us wrong… we have shied away from marijuana producers for two years as competition, regulation and taxes remain big unknowns… however, there are specific auxiliary service providers in the space which have not received the same kind of frenzied investor attention (judged by trading volume), yet they won’t face the same challenges as growers.
We think these types of companies should be on watchlists right now as they could experience heightened interest from investors who’ve profited from the massive stock runs growers garnered in 2016. Call it somewhat of a recapitalizing of the sector prediction…
We are referring to companies positioned to profit from and facilitate the growth in patients using medical marijuana.
Medical Marijuana Bull Market in Transition?
Consider this: Medical marijuana usage has grown in Canada from perhaps a few hundred patients thought to be ‘hippies’ or ‘experimentalists’ twenty years ago to tens of thousands of everyday Canadians – parents, trades workers, even those who serve and protect our streets, RCMP officers.
MedicalMarijuana.ca, which is run by a group of patients, doctors and growers, made the below projections with respect to Canada’s medical marijuana market:
“Nearly 40,000 patients across the country are authorized to use medical marijuana. This number is expected to reach upwards of 400,000 over the next ten years.”
Few, if any other, industries are projected to see their target market increase by 1,000% in the coming decade.
On November 29th, the Financial Post published an article titled ‘Game changer’: Canada’s recreational pot sales could reach $6 billion by 2021. It stated:
“The illegal marijuana industry is estimated at $7 billion per year and costs governments $2.3 billion to enforce, according to the federal government.”
Not only that, but many purchasing illegal marijuana may be using the drug to combat one of approximately 17.4 million Canadian treatable conditions outlined by StatsCanada.
From pain disorders to psychiatric, neurological and cancer/gastrointestinal afflictions, demand for alternative treatment (medical marijuana) continues to rise.
While growers compete to deliver better, or unique, product, medical marijuana clinics are preparing to capitalize on this potentially astonishing demand increase in their own way… more on this shortly.
Canaccord Genuity analysts Matt Bottomley and Neil Maruoka, according to a recent report, stated,
“Demand for medical cannabis is growing at a significant pace and by 2021, combined annual demand for medical and recreational cannabis will be about 575,000 kilograms…”
Medical marijuana is what we are choosing to focus on as opposed to the unpredictable recreational marijuana market. Right now, there are just too many unknowns regarding recreational use and the regulatory and tax regimes that will come with it. While the bureaucrats roll out the red tape, giddy over the potential tax revenue, investors may soon realize growers will have to ante up (taxes) if they want to sell in Canada. And depending on regulations, the growing side of the recreational business may become riddled with barriers to entry for small companies.
Canopy Growth’s CEO, Bruce Linton, responded to rumblings that Trudeau’s government will enact a tax on recreational marijuana sales, stating:
“We can probably carry a tax burden of 25 per cent or so and end up in the consumer hands on a still cost-competitive basis, with a superior product.”
Depending on the level of tax, it could be a serious potential headwind for growers that many investors may be overlooking. Don’t count out a 15% to 25% tax on pot for recreational use…
Just like alcohol, we suspect recreational marijuana will be treated with similar ‘sin tax’ protocol. For example, look at Ontario’s three component beer tax… it is divvied up like so:
- beer basic tax
- volume tax
- environmental tax (if applicable).
source: http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/tax/bwt/
The Medical marijuana sector, and the clinics across the country, will not have to deal with these heavy potential taxes (although medical marijuana is subject to a typical federal sales tax – treated similar to an over the counter drug in that regard).
Sunny Freeman of the Financial Post reported last week,
“Canada’s task force on legalizing pot concluded its highly-anticipated report for the federal government Wednesday, but some marijuana producers believe pot-watchers need to chill expectations for legal recreational sales any time soon.”
The title of that report read “Long path to legalization’: Marijuana companies not convinced of legal recreational market by 2018”.
However, with expected heightened demand for prescription marijuana, professional clinics relating to the drug could be set for a sustained uptick in business…
And there is one particular company in this space, which trades on the TSX Venture, we are putting our name behind: Canabo Medical (CMM:TSXV). 
With its growing popularity and diminishing social stigma, more people with ailments and serious disease are curious about the benefits of medical marijuana; and if it may be of value in their treatment plan. Already, largely because of the politics and constant coverage from the mainstream media, greater awareness regarding medical marijuana is leading to growing referrals for physicians trained in marijuana consultation.
Many family doctors often have a certain level of skepticism or are simply nervous about prescribing marijuana due to a lack of understanding. So, many seek out other professionals within the industry to try and understand appropriate prescription scenarios. If a patient’s pain or ailment is not being effectively treated by conventional medicine, marijuana can become a secondary choice, and seeing an expert physician for a prescription as you would for any other drug only makes sense.
This is where our new client and featured marijuana company, Canabo Medical (CMM:TSXV), comes in. Canabo Medical, through its wholly owned subsidiary Cannabinoid Medical Clinic, operates the largest chain of medical marijuana clinics of its kind in Canada, with a total of 10 clinics – operating in Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Alberta. And Canabo’s Cannabinoid Medical Clinic has witnessed a surge in new patient referral business of late:
source: Canabo Medical Corporate Presentation | Fall 2016
With referrals hitting new highs almost every month in 2016, the company has a stated goal to end the first quarter of 2017 with 14 clinics, and projects to be into positive cash flow by next year.
Canabo Medical – Proven Revenue Generator
Canabo Medical’s story is new to the public market and has not had the kind of fanfare (in respect to trading volume) many issuers in the marijuana space have had this year. We believe the reasons for this are simple: it’s a new listing (began trading as a public company in November) currently in the early-stage of its life cycle, and its core management and board are made up largely of physicians and business builders, not promoters.
Physicians and Expertise in the Medical Marijuana Sector
As many Canadians, from coast to coast, embrace medical marijuana, thousands of potential patients will want to speak with physicians that have medical marijuana expertise before using this treatment option. Canabo Medical has over 40 physicians working in their clinics across Canada. These physicians have been trained in medical marijuana and are cumulatively now treating nearly 1,000 new patients per month… take a look at the new patient growth below:
source: Canabo Medical Corporate Presentation | Fall 2016
Canabo Medical’s wholly owned subsidiary operates Canada’s largest chain of physician run referral-only medical clinics that work closely with both patients and physicians to address the need for cannabinoid therapy. The company’s physicians specialize in medical marijuana usage, unique to many physicians prescribing the drug today.
The company explains that,
“The majority of our patients visit us for symptoms related to chronic pain, cancer, epilepsy, arthritis, anxiety, and MS. These patients have often tried multiple first and second line therapies with variable success, and have ongoing symptoms that cause significant distress and functional burden.”
Note: Canabo’s business and revenue model are offset by government healthcare plans.
Canabo’s emphasis is on improving daily functionality in patient lives. The company views medical cannabinoids as one potential component of a patient’s treatment plan, and it screens each patient for suitability. Because Canabo’s patient base is made of up patients with serious conditions, referred to them by other physicians, the majority of underlying conditions Canabo’s physicians treat are chronic conditions. These patients and treatment options will likely be around for a long time to come…
When a patient walks into one of the company’s clinics, a patient consult takes place, which is covered by the Provincial health plan, thus providing a free service to the patient. This appealed to us and is a key reason as to why we are selecting Canabo Medical as our featured medical marijuana company heading into 2017.
If a patient is a candidate for cannabinoid therapy, they will then meet with a Clinical Educator, who will work with them to navigate the process of selecting and registering with one of the many licensed producers as well as identifying strains that may suit their needs. Additionally, Canabo is attempting to collect an industry leading source of data relating to medical marijuana… We’ll explain momentarily how this works into Canabo’s business and revenue model.
As explained above, Canabo has established itself as the largest chain of physician based medical marijuana clinics in Canada. Let’s take a look at how Canabo, which has a goal of being cash flow positive by the end of 2017, actually generates revenue. As noted, Canabo’s Clinic expenses, which include physicians and clinic overhead, are covered, in part, through Provincial billings.
Let’s look more closely at the company’s three streams of revenue and why we believe it is poised to grow each segment…
Canabo Medical – 3 Primary Revenue Streams
Revenue Source #1 – Patient – Physician consultation
As a referral only clinic, when physicians interact with patients, costs for the patient interaction are fully recoverable from Provincial Health Departments. Thank you, Canada. This includes new referred patients and patient re-checks. According to the company, the advantage of having physicians and clinic overhead paid through Provincial Billings should accelerate the roll-out of future clinics to meet demand. It is not a one and done process. Patients return regularly to monitor their improvements or tweak their current plan. Each visit adds to Canabo’s bottom line.
Revenue Source #2 – Database Subscriptions
Canabo maintains a complete database on all patients, including medical, market demographics and treatment efficacy. As medical marijuana goes mainstream, this data is going to become increasingly valuable to producers and sellers, among others. Think about how much Big Pharma spends to understand its target market and key demographics.
Back in February of 2015, Tweed Marijuana Inc. and Canabo Medical (our new featured company) announced the launch of a collaborative research partnership on marijuana for medical purposes. Tweed has since changed its name to Canopy Growth (CGC:TSX) and is now the largest marijuana grower and distributor in the country. Canopy is also the first marijuana producer in North America to graduate to a major exchange – viewed by many as a true industry trailblazer. Its interest in the data behind medical marijuana users should not be lost on the investor.
Note: Canopy Growth has become the largest marijuana company (by market capitalization) in Canada with a market cap of approximately CAD$1.31 billion Friday afternoon.
On a long call with Canabo Medical’s Executive Chairman, Dr. Neil Smith, a leading Otolaryngologist Neil SmithHead and Neck Surgeon working in the Halifax/Dartmouth area, he explained to us just how powerful data on medical marijuana can be:
“We are able to provide very powerful data to a variety of client types that wish to access our data. The key is we track how patients are improving, how quickly
they return to work, if there are any changes to prescriptions following the addition of medical marijuana or if they need other medicines following treatment. All of these data points are recorded, including gender and demographics along with many other fact sets. From the perspective of our data clients, growers can learn if they have effective strains for specific conditions; insurance companies can learn if adding medical marijuana to a treatment regiment can lower the costs of high priced opioids; workers compensation corporation or disability insurers can learn if an employee can get back to work sooner. Our data can have significant financial impact on our clients’ business.”
The company has informed us that they record as many as 400 data points on patients, used to monitor trends and to advance science in cannabis.
Acadia University is completing and will publish a study utilizing Canabo patient database information.
According to the company, Canabo generates revenue by offering access to its data via annual subscriptions and one-off analysis assignments. As competition to deliver the best strains of medical marijuana increase, so will demand for this type of data.
In speaking more with Dr. Neil Smith, he explained,
“Ultimately for physicians and insurers to change how medical marijuana is prescribed, there will need to be clinical trials, and clinical trials need ethics approvals. Ethics Review Boards need to review the trends in treatment prior to giving approval to run full clinical trials.”
He added,
“The key is evidence-based medicine. You have to prove that what you are doing makes sense and that there has to be empirical evidence to back up claims.”
Revenue Source #3 – Independent Medical Evaluation Consulting
Canabo provides consulting to the insurance and employer industries, providing expert opinion on the appropriateness of cannabinoid treatment or workplace safety issues on a fee for service basis. This is a huge responsibility given that patients who use medical marijuana are attempting to enhance not only their at home, but work life. Dr. Neil Smith explained to us that this function will become more necessary as medical marijuana goes mainstream in the coming years.
The company has told us that as its patient base continues to expand, and as its data fills up, it will be able to provide more meaningful trend analysis to insurance and employer industries. Canabo understands the value of big data in an emerging sector that is hungry for access to information related to patient outcomes.
These three revenue streams explain why Canabo Medical has projected a dramatic increase in revenue and cash flow in anticipation of medical marijuana going mainstream.
Canabo Medical is already more than a month into its 2017 fiscal year as the company’s year-end was October 31st. It has projected being cash flow positive from operations by the end of its fiscal year 2017.
Wrapping Up
Forget about the potential for a whopping tax on recreational marijuana, increasing utility costs, delivery costs, competition working to undercut prices or undermine product. We aren’t here to introduce the next highly promoted grow operation… we wanted a physician’s approach to the sector. The service side of this industry has been somewhat overlooked in the current marijuana bull market as retail and institutional investors chase the handful of growers on the market to historically massive valuations. Canabo Medical, however, sits with a market cap of roughly CAD$26 million. It last traded on Friday at CAD$0.86 and stands with a relatively tight capital structure…
As medical marijuana becomes a mainstream treatment option for a growing percentage of the population in Canada, expected to increase from approximately 40,000 patients to 400,000 patients in the coming decade, we believe it prudent to seek out public companies with physician expertise and clinic exposure. Canabo Medical ticks both of these boxes – with plans to expand to more locations in Canada.
Over the last six months we have been approached by several marijuana-related public companies and have turned them all down as featured companies… until now.
Canabo Medical (CMM:TSXV) operates the largest chain of physician led medical marijuana clinics in Canada; and it has, under its brand, a growing number of physicians who specialize in medical marijuana consultation. Given the fact that Canadian medical marijuana patients are anticipated to increase by approximately 1,000% in the coming 10 years, as a nation-wide leader in its field, Canabo stands to benefit from the growing acceptance and rising usage of medical marijuana.
Recognize that we are biased as Canabo Medical is an advertiser client. Please take responsibility for practicing your own thorough and independent due diligence. Learn about the risks associated with investing in micro-cap companies of this nature. Pick your spots.
From our perspective, the potential reward justifies the risk of putting our name behind Canabo Medical (CMM:TSXV) – our featured medical marijuana company heading into 2017…
As Canabo’s story develops, we’ll be sure to relay news. And given that its stock was just halted at the company’s request this morning, we won’t have to wait very long for news. This marks the initiation of our coverage on Canabo Medical (CMM:TSXV).
All the best with your investments,
PINNACLEDIGEST.COM
In April, 2016 CBC News featured Dr. Danial Schecter, co-founder of Canabo’s wholly owned Cannabinoid Medical Clinic (CMC) and Medical Director for the company. Click image above to read.
Canabo Medical Stock Information
Stock symbol: CMM – trades on the TSX Venture
Stock price (CAD$): $0.86
10-day avg. volume (approx): 145,000
Market capitalization (approx): CAD$26 million
Canabo Medical Corporate Presentation | Click to view
Online Resources
Disclosure, Risks Involved and Information on Forward Looking Statements:
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This report may contain technical or other inaccuracies, omissions, or typographical errors, for which Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc., owner of PinnacleDigest.com, assumes no responsibility.
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All statements in this report, other than statements of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements.
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Set forth below is our disclosure of compensation received from Canabo Medical Inc. as of December 5, 2016:
Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc., owner of PinnacleDigest.com, has been paid CAD$55,000 plus gst to provide online advertisement coverage for Canabo Medical Inc. for a pre-paid six month online marketing agreement. The company (Canabo Medical Inc.) has paid for this coverage. The coverage includes, but is not limited to, the creation and distribution of reports authored by PinnacleDigest.com about Canabo Medical Inc. (reports such as this one), as well as display advertisements and news distribution about the company on our website and in our newsletter. We (Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc.) may purchase shares of Canabo Medical Inc. in the future. We (Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc.) intend to sell every share we may purchase of Canabo Medical Inc. for our own profit. All shares we (Maximus Strategic Consulting Inc.) may purchase in the future of Canabo Medical Inc. will be sold without notice to our subscribers. Please recognize that we benefit from price and trading volume increases in Canabo Medical Inc. Please recognize that we are extremely biased when it comes to Canabo Medical.
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